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Tuesday, July 22, 2014

The July 22 Tokyo Shimbun article, "Running Backwards on Health Support After the Nuclear Accident: Ministry of Environment Expert Meeting"

On July 22, 2014, Tokyo Shimbun published an article titled, "Running Backwards on Health Support After the Nuclear Accident: Ministry of Environment Expert Meeting." The entire article is only available in the paper edition as in the image below, but it has been written out in this blog post.



Below is the complete English translation of this article.


Running Backwards on Health Support After the Nuclear Accident: Ministry of Environment Expert Meeting

The Ministry of the Environment (MOE) Expert Meeting Discussing Health Support After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident is taking an unthinkable twist. At the July 16th meeting, an outside researcher asked for the expansion of health checkups, but the committee chair looked the other way, stating “I don’t want to discuss the issue.” The expansion of health checkup is part of the Act Concerning Support for Children and Disaster Victims, but the committee chair himself voiced an opinion, “We now have different circumstances from when the Act was first approved.” There is no way disaster victims can accept such attitudes. (by T. Sakakibara)

◆ Hesitant on the Expansion of Health Checkups

“Radioactive materials [being disseminated due to the Fukushima nuclear accident] are not thought to remain within borders of Fukushima Prefecture. We need to urgently figure out if there are any cases in non-Fukushima residents. We should not be fixated only on dose assessments.”

It was the Ministry of the Environment Expert Meeting held on July 16th. An invited guest speaker Toshihide Tsuda, an epidemiologist and an Okayama University professor, challenged the current state of the meeting spending time on discussing what the exposure dose was for residents within and out of Fukushima Prefecture.

However, Shigenobu Nagataki, the committee chair and a former chairman of Radiation Effects Research Foundation, pushed aside what Professor Tsuda pointed out, stating, “You are extremely unique.”

Fukushima Prefecture began the Prefectural Resident Health Survey immediately after the accident, including thyroid examination for those who were under age 18 at the time of the accident. However, the central government currently pays for health examination only for Fukushima residents. Therefore, the Expert Meeting is presently discussing whether other areas might need health checkups.

Chairman Nagataki has set a policy to: 1) Assess the exposure dose for residents within and out of Fukushima Prefecture; 2) Analyze health effects based on the dose; and 3) Consider which health support might be necessary. At the last meeting (the seventh session) on June 26th, the rough outline of dose assessment was finally put together.

The outline, based on the dose estimates by an Independent Administrative Institution, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, as well as the behavior questionnaire of residents by Fukushima Prefecture, stated that the internal exposure dose from radioactive iodine that can cause thyroid cancer was “mostly under 50 mSv.” In regards to the external exposure dose, it noted that “The survey finding, ’99.8% was under 5 mSv in Fukushima Prefecture,’ could be reasonably applied to see the overall tendency.”

However, there are large uncertainties in this assessment result.

Only about 1,000 had direct measurements of exposure from radioactive iodine taken, which is 0.3% of residents eligible for thyroid examination by Fukushima Prefecture. Radioactive iodine has a short half-life of 8 days and cannot be measured now. Behavior questionnaires for external dose assessment had a low response rate of only 25.9%.

During the meeting, Professor Tsuda claimed, “When considering a causal relationship between an illness and a cause, data for the cause often tends to be scant. It is a principle of international epidemiological analysis to see it from the side of the illness. Considering the cause first is merely a laboratory method.”

In addition, he continued, “Fixating on dose assessments will delay countermeasures, worsening the damage.” He emphasized that health checkups should be immediately carried out within and out of Fukushima Prefecture, in order to identify cases of thyroid cancer and other illnesses and to analyze whether the number of cases increased after the accident or whether there are regional differences.

Despite inviting Professor Tsuda to the meeting, Chairman Nagataki practically ignored his opinion.

To this response [by Nagataki calling him unique], Professor Tsuda retorted, “My opinions are based on a textbook published by Oxford University Press. Chairman, you are the one that is unique.” However, Chairman Nagataki unilaterally cut off the conversation, stating, “I have no intention of arguing with you. We are going to carry on discussion based on exposure dose.”

◆ Not Meeting the Expectations by Residents

Passive assessments of radiation health effects by the Japanese government predate this meeting.

The Cabinet Office expert meeting, “Working Group (WG) on Risk Management of Low-dose Radiation Exposure,” put together a report in December 2011, concluding, “…increased risk of cancer from low-dose radiation exposures at 100 mSv or less is so small as to be concealed by carcinogenic effects from other factors, making verification of any clear cancer risk from radiation exceedingly challenging.” http://www.cas.go.jp/jp/genpatsujiko/info/twg/Working_Group_Report.pdf

The Cabinet Office WG was also headed by Nagataki. It also included other members of the MOE expert meeting, such as Ostura Niwa, a special professor at Fukushima Medical University, and Keigo Endo, president of Kyoto College of Medical Science.

The expert meeting, at this point of time, is leaning in the direction of “Radiation health effects cannot be proven,” and “As the effects cannot be proven, even health checkups within Fukushima Prefecture are unnecessary,” since the exposure dose within and out of Fukushima Prefecture is expected to be significantly lower than 100 mSv.

In fact, the expert meeting already has some opinions hesitant on expanding health checkups.

The Act Concerning Support for Children and Disaster Victims, approved in June 2012, asks for expansion of health checkups as well as reduction of medical expenses, but Chairman Nagataki cast doubt on the need for it at the seventh session, stating “Circumstances are quite different now compared to the time when the act was approved,” and, “As the dose assessment has progressed, we can now make scientific statements in regards to the risk.”

Likewise, during the same session, a member of the expert meeting and a professor at Osaka University, Tomotaka Sobue, explained disadvantages of health checkups using the term, “overdiagnosis.”

This means that since a slow-growing cancer, such as thyroid cancer, has a possibility of never becoming symptomatic in lifetime and causing damages to the body, discovery of cancer during health checkups could cause excessive anxiety and a psychological and physical burden due to surgery.

Another member and the clinic director at International University of Health and Welfare, Gen Suzuki, claimed “An adequate debate needs to be carried out as to whether the best answer is to conduct health checkups as a response to anxiety by residents regarding their health.”

However, requests for expansion of health checkups are swelling from the side of the parties involved, the residents.

On July 13th, there was an event in Metropolitan Tokyo for mothers from within and out of Fukushima Prefecture to talk about life after the nuclear accident.

One of the participants, Kaoru Inagaki (age 42), a member of citizen’s group, Kanto Children Health Survey Support Fund, which conducts thyroid examination in four prefectures including Tochigi, Ibaraki, Chiba and Saitama, said, “When we announce openings for the examination, they are immediately taken up.”

Another participant, Kumi Kanome (age 46), a mother who evacuated with a second-grade daughter to Kanagawa Prefecture from Otama Village, Fukushima Prefecture, appealed, “The nuclear accident increased our worries about children’s illnesses. It is natural for us to want to have them checked out. Regardless of whether living in or outside Fukushima Prefecture, any mother would feel that way.”

Emiko Ito (age 51), director of the event organizer, non-profit organization “National Parents Network to Protect Children from Radiation,” said, “The expert meeting is ignoring the Act Concerning Support for Children and Disaster Victims. That won’t be conducive to resolving residents’ anxiety. It only leads to mistrust.”

Some of the members of the expert meeting have different views. One of them, Hiromi Ishikawa, Executive Director of Japan Medical Association, criticizes, “The present expert meeting does not reflect opinions of the residents. I don’t know why anybody would just one-sidedly tell worried people, ‘It’s okay.’”

From a stand point of “nobody knows the effect of low-dose radiation exposure,” he says, “We need to quickly consider whether there are any illnesses due to radiation and how to deal with them if there are any. Worries can be only resolved when we are prepared that way.”

“Advantages and disadvantages of health checkups are not something that can be uniformly decided by those who are called experts. We need to establish the system for health checkups and let the residents, who are the parties involved, decide.”

Memo from the editing desk:
Mr. Nagataki is running the expert meeting. This fact alone makes it clear how the government has summed up the Fukushima nuclear accident. The predecessor of Radiation Effects Research Foundation was the United States Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC), which “investigated the effects of atomic bombs without treatment.” A network originating there was involved in developing the “Myth of Infallible Safety.” Now they are working hard to spread the “Myth of Reassurance.”

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Mako Oshidori in Düsseldorf "The Hidden Truth about Fukushima"

On March 8th, 2014, comedienne/journalist Mako Oshidori gave a lecture, "The Hidden Truth About Fukushima" in Düsseldorf, Germany, organized by a citizen's group, SAYONARA Genpatsu Düsseldorf. Translation of Mako Oshidori's March 6th, 2014 press conference at the German IPPNW (International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War) Symposium in Frankfurt can be found here.

The lecture, given in Japanese with German interpretation, was transcribed and translated into English.





Moderator: Good evening everyone. My name is Mariko. Welcome to a lecture by Mako Oshidori. As we all know, the Japanese people experienced the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. A huge earthquake, followed by tsunami and the nuclear accident, has become an unprecedented disaster for the Japanese as well as the rest of the world. Moreover, this accident is not only out of control but continues to be in critical state.
As you may be aware, the issue of anti-nuclear power plant ranks third in the interest of Metropolitan Tokyo residents. This was revealed in the degree of interest survey of various public opinion polls during the recent Tokyo gubernatorial election. The number one issue was declining birthrate. It could be said that the interest in this type of issue is suppressed due to the media control. This is a situation where the voices from disaster-stricken Fukushima do not reach Tokyo residents.

However, today, we have invited Mako Oshidori to come and share with us her direct knowledge of what is happening in Fukushima. It is a rare opportunity that this type of information is directly disseminated in foreign countries, so this is going to be a valuable lecture. Mako Oshidori is a representative of Free Press Corporation in Japan. Is that right?

Mako: I am the director, not a representative.

This organization was originally created after the earthquake. The media is controlled as I just mentioned. This alliance was created for the purpose of conveying accurate, fresh information without media control.

Mako: Actually, it was created shortly before the earthquake. It was sort of coincidental.

Before the Fukushima accident, Mako Oshidori was performing Manzai, a two-person comedy act, as part of the pair, Oshidori Mako and Ken, for belonging to Yoshimoto Kogyo. However, after the nuclear accident, she began to voice her opinions about anti-nuclear power plant issues, which kept her from getting work. Instead, she became more known as a journalist, especially for her sharp questions which would drive TEPCO officials into a corner. Mako is of course a journalist, but she also visits Fukushima Prefecture to gather voices of local people and interview TEPCO workers to gather information. Now I will give the microphone to Mako Oshidori. I hope this evening will bring an informative and contemplative time together.

My name is Mako Oshidori.  I am sorry I speak in Japanese

I am very thankful I can meet you today and have an opportunity to talk here. I am glad to be here. I am very grateful to the Protestant church and the IPPNW or International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War for inviting me to Germany. I would like to make a minor correction in the introduction given a moment ago. I was invited to talk to you, but I am actually not active in the anti-nuclear power plant movement. What I do is conduct investigations. There are numerous issues in Japan that I investigate, from the nuclear accident to other medical issues such as Minamata disease and Asbestosis.

However, doctors and scientists attending the IPPNW conference, which ended yesterday, shared how they end up being labeled as anti-nuclear activists even though they don’t consider themselves to be as such, when they research and publicize facts inconvenient for promotion of nuclear power. There is a tremendous amount of pressure exerted when researching and writing up facts the nuclear lobby doesn’t like. If you continue without giving in, despite such pressure, people eventually think you are an anti-nuclear power plant activist. Of course, it is my belief that we don’t need nuclear power plants on Planet Earth.


There is one thing that really surprised me here in Europe. It’s the fact that people here think Japan is a very democratic and free country. I am actually a journalist with the highest attendance rate at the TEPCO press conference. It seems inconvenient to them when I write various facts in articles, and a variety of pressure has been placed on me. There was a magazine I used to contribute an article to. An electric power company group would pressure the editor to place three pro-nuclear articles each time one of my articles was posted. As a result, my article ended up not being posted in the magazine. Also, there was a television show being planned where I would talk about the TEPCO accident, but sponsors gave an instruction not to have me use any words such as nuclear power and nuclear power plants. I ended up not going on the show.




In 2011 and 2012, pressure was placed on me by TEPCO. However, in 2013 when the Japanese central government decided to begin to restart nuclear power plants, the government placed a watch on me. In July 2013, a new House of Councilors was elected and both Upper and Lower House ended up with the Liberal Democratic Party as the ruling party. This administration then held a secret meeting by secretly gathering specialists and researchers in the field of nuclear power. The meeting was convened in order to collect ideas about how to decommission Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and a piece of paper was distributed with a list of names. The current Japanese government told the researchers not to approach anybody on the list. The list included people with power in the opposition parties, such as the former prime minister Naoto Kan and the politician Ishiro Ozawa, and I was told that my name, Mako Oshidori, was listed alongside these names. A researcher who was given the list and told not to approach anybody on it was friendly with me and told me the list included my name.

Soon after that a mysterious man began to follow me. This man appeared to be a member of Public Security Intelligence Agency in the Cabinet Office, which investigates various things. One of my hobbies is taking a candid shot, and I will show you the successful candid shot of this man. 





Just as you see here, there was a time period when someone would always be near me, trying to eavesdrop on my conversation with people. As I am a professional entertainer, whoever I am talking to would ask me if the person was my manager. I would say that the person must be one of my groupies, as I have never met the person. Sometimes I would go to Fukushima Prefecture to interview different mothers. We would have meals together and talk somewhere, and when the mothers are leaving the premise to go home, an agent from the Public Security Intelligence Agency would take a photo of each mother and make a note of the license plate number of each car. Afraid of having their photos taken or the license plate numbers recorded, some Fukushima mothers would refused to be interviewed, or they would even refuse to have their stories published. An ex-agent who is knowledgeable about the work of the Public Security Intelligence Agency said that when you are visibly followed, that was meant to intimidate you. If there was one person visible, then there would be ten more. I think that is analogous to cockroaches. So, when you do a little serious investigation about the nuclear accident, you are under various pressure and it makes it more difficult to interview people. There are actually other journalists from major newspapers and television stations, other than me, who have done a lot of investigation about the nuclear accident, but the information doesn’t readily come out. That’s because the pressure is placed on them not to release the information. What I am going to tell you now might surprise you, but the Japanese people are just as surprised when I tell them the same information as it’s something they have never heard of, read in the newspaper, or seen on TV.





Next, I would like to talk about the nuclear power plant workers. This man used to work for TEPCO as a nurse at a medical clinic inside FDNPP. I interviewed him when he quit his job at TEPCO in 2013. 




When NPP workers die, the only deaths publicly announced by TEPCO are deaths that occurred while at work. For instance, if workers die during a weekend, in sleep, or during time off after 3 months of work, their deaths won’t be announced. Such deaths are reported to someone like him at the medical team at TEPCO, but they are merely attributed to chronic illnesses they must have had. There is no way to tell if the deaths were due to radiation exposure, but he said he was certain the workers were working under extremely severe conditions. I really wanted to write about his interview in various magazines, but unfortunately I can only write about this on the Internet which doesn’t have any sponsors.

There was an NPP worker who died in January 2012. I did a fairly thorough investigation after I was able to obtain police report on him. We got an address for the guarantor for the deceased worker, so we went to that address. There was an apartment building at this address without a unit numbered 204 which was supposed to be where the guarantor lived. In Japan, number four could mean bad luck (Note: In Japanese, number 4 phonetically sounds just likea Japanese word for “death”). After room 203, there was room 205, skipping room 204. I asked the other occupants of the apartment building, but there was no resident there by the name of this guarantor, so it didn’t seem like I wrote down the number wrong. Even though the building could be located on a map, you have to go there to verify the room is actually there. This might have been an guarantor with an imaginary address. This is the dark side of the construction and nuclear industries, not just post-nuclear accident, that those without families, especially elderlies, are given harsh work.

Workers who were exposed to 100 mSv in 2011 are entitled to annual cancer screening and thorough medical care. However, most workers get exposure doses below 100 mSv, such as 90, 95, or 83 mSv, and they don’t qualify for thorough medical care. Workers who had been working at NPP since before the accident know what could happen to them a after reaching a certain exposure dose in one year, or what it means to get exposed to 35 mSv in 2 hours during a particular work. They talk about how they probably won’t live too long. They are determined not to have any children, and they often talk about how uncertain they are about their lives in 5 years.

In current Japan, even children are not being protected, but there are some who are determined to protect children’t health. However, there is hardly any group or individuals advocating for protecting the workers in the most dangerous environment at FDNPS. I believe that is our responsibility. My article about the deceased worker from the January 2012 investigation was actually published in a weekly magazine Shukan Bunshun. However, a singer Ayumi Hamazaki suddenly got divorced right then, and I was asked to cut 75% of the article. I think a big reason why information such as this is not publicized is because readers are not craving for such information. We are in essence not fulfilling our duty to be informed.






Next, i would like to talk about mothers in Fukushima. These mothers (and fathers) live in Iwaki City, Fukushima. They are active on school lunch issues. Currently, Fukushima produce isn’t selling well due to suspected contamination. So the prefectural policy is to encourage the use of Fukushima produce in school lunches, in an attempt to appeal its safety. As a large municipality, Iwaki City had been purchasing produce from distant prefectures instead of Fukushima produce, but after the accident, the policy changed to use Fukushima produce in school lunches in order to appeal safety of Fukushima produce by showing it’s safe enough to give to children. They are collecting signatures for a petition to oppose the use of Fukushima produce in school lunches. Some say stricter radiation testing (in food used in school lunches) could help, but the mothers claim that currently in Japan only cesium is measured and they have no idea if there is any strontium. They oppose the use of Fukushima produce in school lunches for fear of finding out, ten-plus years down the road, that there was actually plutonium in the food that children ate. Their concern is not so much if it’s safe or not, but it should not be a scientific issue but an ethical issue to use children as a way of appealing for safety. However, currently, about 70% of the municipalities within Fukushima Prefecture use Fukushima produce to children in school lunches as a way of appealing for safety. These mothers constitute a minority group, and therefore, they are pressured and harassed. They are told to leave Fukushima if they are worried about the contamination. I investigated details of these harassments, but I have been asked not to write about it and disseminate it. It’s because they are afraid the harassment might worsen once it becomes clear which specific harassments bother them.




This is a photo from the October 2012 Fukushima visit with Mr. Nesterenko, the director of BELRAD Institute in Belarus. The most surprising moment for him came when he took measurements in this area of Oguni Elementary School. 






It says 27.6 μSv/h. He asked me then if all the students had evacuated. I said they were in class as we spoke. He said the radiation level qualified for immediate mandatory evacuation in Belarus. He told me that he thought Japan was a wealthy country but that he was apparently wrong. At the time, some Date City government workers happened to come by, so I told them there was a spot with a very high radiation level. They told me they already knew about it. This spot has really a very high radiation level, but the inside of the elementary school has been decontaminated and deemed safe. However, Mr. Nesterenko kept asking what it was that they meant by saying it was safe inside as there is no air filter for school buildings and air from the high radiation spot still flows inside. I was shown by the mothers the radiation level for the spot was 179 μSv/h in September 2012, which was a month before our visit. The principle of the school sent a letter to families stating everything was okay because the radiation level came down to 3.9 μSv/h after decontamination.  




The mother who showed me the letter said she wanted the children evacuated immediately with the radiation level of 179 μSv/h. However, the evacuation never happened and the school remained in normal operation, so her family evacuated voluntarily at their own expense. During my 2012 visit there, out of 200 families at this school, only 2 families were concerned about radiation exposure. Now those 2 families moved away. Even after the move, they are constantly talking about they don’t know if they are just crazy, worried about nothing, or if it’s actually dangerous. 


By the way, the current measure to deal with areas contaminated with a high level of radioactive material is to remove the soil, put it in bags, and place them in an empty lot. It’s not just Fukushima Prefecture. Neighboring prefectures in eastern Japan, such as Ibaraki Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Miyagi Prefecture and Iwate Prefecture also have a lot of areas with contamination where people live. They decontaminate, put the soil in bags, and stack them in an empty lot. By the way, these bags look small, but each bag actually weighs 1 ton. It’s rather large. 


This photo is from Ibaraki Prefecture. Quite ironically, there is a sign at one end of the photo that says to “take any garbage home.” Currently, there is no plan on how to dispose these bags of contaminated material.



One difference I noticed between Fukushima and Chernobyl accidents is that in Fukushima the Internet is quite developed. This is an open house of a project called Matsumoto Boarding School Project for the Children of Fukushima. In Matsumoto City, Nagano Prefecture, the mayor started a project for Fukushima children to live in a dormitory and go to school. The first group will have 10 children. 




The mayor of Matsumoto City, Akira Sugenoya, is a physician who operated on thyroid glands of children in Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl accident. Needless to say, he insisted on evacuating children immediately after the Fukushima accident. However, evacuation never happened. So he started this project with the Fukushima residents who evacuated to Matsumoto City.


In Fukushima, it has become a taboo to be afraid of contamination due to the nuclear accident or be concerned about radiation exposure. They are not supposed to be afraid as the country, the government and the researchers assure them it’s safe. Therefore, this project uses the word, boarding school, instead of evacuation, allowing for easier dissemination of information in Fukushima and less hesitant participation. 

As the new school year begins in April in Japan, Fukushima children will come to Nagano Prefecture to live beginning in April this year. This was a trial last December for the interested children and families. I had a chance to have private conversations with the children, who were interested in participating in this project, away from their parents. What they told me was quite shocking. Many of the children who are potential participants are junior high school can get on the Internet and collect information on their own. Even though teachers and fathers tell them that they are not affected by the nuclear accident, the Internet search says otherwise. Their health seems to be affected since the nuclear accident, and they seem to feel better if they go to uncontaminated areas for a visit. So, some children want to study in uncontaminated areas although their parents are against it. One junior high school girl said she would want to bear children when grown up, so she felt that she should leave Fukushima as soon as possible. One girl said she was going to leave Fukushima for high school or college, but she was interested in the project as she would be able to leave for junior high school. 

There are different opinions in regards to contamination, but children are actually gathering information on the Internet, thinking for themselves and being afraid. I was surprised at such a reality where children are unable to talk to parents or teachers about it despite their fear. There was one elementary school whose PTA discussed during a meeting that they should only rely on school information, as the Internet scares people. That scared some families enough that they actually decided to evacuate.

I was just told how much time I have left. I would like to talk about the current status of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.



This is a chimney called a “stack” behind Units 1 and 2. There are various issues all over Fukushima Daiichi NPP, but this is one of the places that I consider the most dangerous. It is 120 m tall. In December 2013, it was discovered the highest radiation level, 25 Sv/h, at the bottom of the stack. It’s not micro- or milli-sievert, but it’s 25 Sievert. and humans cannot go near it. The problem gets worse. TEPCO discovered deformities on 4 sides at 60 of the 120 meter height. That is shown in this photo.  




Some are totally severed.




Ordinarily, this should be immediately repaired, but the bottom of the stack is 25 Sv/h, and there is one spot that is 15 Sv/h. So, they can’t do anything about it. What TEPCO is doing about this is they have appointed workers to constantly watch it. This is very close to Units 1 and 2. We still get occasional earthquakes in Fukushima and eastern Japan. Workers on site are very worried about whether it would fall onto the reactor buildings. If it ever fell on Unit 1 or 2, all the workers would have to evacuate. There is no guarantee they would have enough time to evacuate, and it could lead to a severe accident necessitating evacuation of nearby residents once again.

One of the things not well known is the fact that in reality radioactive materials continue to be released into air and groundwater from the reactors at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This is a quick drawing I made of a pressure vessel and a containment vessel. 


Currently, it is thought that fuel rods have melted, falling to and accumulating in the bottom of the pressure vessel. 




It is being cooled with water, but then a lot of hydrogen gas is being produced as part of the reaction between water and radioactive material.




This means there is a danger of another hydrogen explosion, so they inject nitrogen gas there, remove as much radioactive material as possible, and release the gas into outside air. Now we get to the real issue here: this is for Unit 1, but they inject 10 ton of nitrogen gas at 35 m3/h and release 21 m3/h after putting it through a filter. This means there is a leak continuing somewhere at 14 m3/h. The situation is the same for Units 1, 2 and 3, and a large amount of radioactive material continues to be released into the air. The total supposedly approaches 10,000,000 Bq/h.




Now we get to the real issue here: this is for Unit 1, but they inject 10 ton of nitrogen gas at 35 m3/h and release 21 m3/h after putting it through a filter. 



This means there is a leak continuing somewhere at 14 m3/h. 



The situation is the same for Units 1, 2 and 3, and a large amount of radioactive material continues to be released into the air. The total supposedly approaches 10,000,000 Bq/h.

Groundwater is of course contaminated. This is the area where PM Abe declared the contaminated water being completely blocked when trying to bring the Olympics to Tokyo. 


Groundwater is found to be highly contaminated in the area circled in red, and there is a large amount of contaminated water leak in this part, which has been acknowledged by TEPCO. Prime Minister Abe said contaminated water was totally blocked at the harbor, but journalists who attend the TEPCO press conference of course know that was not true. 




So, after the statement by PM Abe, one question after another came from many journalists at the press conference if the contaminated water was actually blocked by the harbor. Also, TEPCO said they asked the government of its intention after hearing PM Abe’s statement. In other words, TEPCO was quite surprised. TEPCO did not dare say it wasn’t blocked, but they always answer that they think the effect will be minimal.

In regards to this area with very highly contaminated groundwater, as described earlier, an announcement was made on February 6, 2014, that one of the wells had 5,000,000 Bq/L strontium detected. But it was actually last July when the well was dug and the groundwater sample was taken and measured. Why the measurement result wasn’t released until now? Measurement data for cesium and other radioactive material was released then, but not strontium 90. Why did they not announce the high strontium level back then? TEPCO explained that the level was so high that they were investigating to make sure there were no errors in the analytical method. This was the first measurement after the observation well for the groundwater was dug, so there is no way to know, at this point, how long and how much the groundwater had been contaminated. Currently, many wells are being dug to take measurements of the groundwater for assessment of contamination, but we are not sure what is leaking from where. All we know is that various things are leaking from many places, not just this one well. We don’t know how long and how much the groundwater has been contaminated. Also, there was an announcement in February that they had underestimated the measurements up to that point.

As described so far, radioactive materials continues to leak into air and water, and there are several places which need immediate attention even though they are not approachable by humans. However, very few Japanese people know about this type of information, as it’s not publicized on TV or in newspaper widely available. Also, the plan is underway to return evacuees to contaminated areas as the government and researchers say it’s safe. This is the reality of a “wealthy” country, Japan, which is considered a free, democratic and wonderful country. But it’s really our own responsibilities that we are in this situation. I am always thinking about how things can be changed. In Japan, many think they are participating in politics only by casting a vote at elections. That’s probably what I thought in the past. But then I realized we are constantly casting a vote when we decide what to buy, what to spend out time on, and where to go. So, I really appreciate you all decided to spend your time to come all the way here. Despite the current situation in Japan, I think things can change if we change our way of life by being mindful about what to buy and how to spend our time, while wanting to know, wishing the media to change, and wishing the politics to change.

I am often told, sometimes scolded, by my entertainer master, perhaps called maestro in German, that “It is no good kicking against the bricks.” On the other hand, another master who experienced WWII tells me not to talk for the country but talk for the happiness of the audience in front of me. Yet another master told me it would take 100 years for the world to change no matter how hard I tried by myself. I told this master, “Then, if there are 100 others like me, it would only take one year.” I think there are over 100 of you here today, so things will change in one more year. I think there are various issues in the world, other than the nuclear accident, but I would like to really think about how to spend my life and keep on living thoughtfully. Thank you so much for your attention.

Transcription by Takashi Mizuno
Translation by @YuriHiranuma

Monday, May 19, 2014

Seventeen More Confirmed Cases: 50 Fukushima Children with Thyroid Cancer

Fifteenth Prefectural Oversight Committee for Fukushima Health Survey convened on May 19, 2014, releasing the results of the latest thyroid examination. ("Fukushima Health Survey" was formerly called "Fukushima Health Management Survey").

Official English translation of the results is available here.

The initial round of thyroid examination finished as of March 31, 2013, although not all the secondary examinations have been completed. The second round of thyroid examination, testing everyone again beginning with areas exposed to higher radiation doses, has already begun, but its results are not available yet.

A summary of the results is provided below:

Total number of children examined as of March 31, 2014: 295,511
Total number of children whose initial examination results are confirmed: 287,056
(Up to the February 21, 2014 examination)
     
     Assessment A1  148,182 (51.6%) (no nodules or cysts found)
     Assessment A2  136,804 (47.7%) (nodules 5.0 mm or smaller or cysts 20.0 mm or smaller)
     Assessment B     2,069 (0.7%) (nodules 5.1 mm or larger or cysts 20.1 mm or larger)
     Assessment C         1 (0.0%) (requiring immediate secondary examination)

Initial examination progress status

Number and proportion of nodules and cysts

Secondary examination includes more detailed thyroid ultrasound, blood and urine tests, and fine-needle aspiration biopsy if warranted.
      2,070 are eligible for secondary examination
      1,754 have actually undergone secondary examination
      1,598 finished the secondary examination

Secondary examination progress status

Summary of fine-needle aspiration biopsy results (as of March 31, 2014)


In summary, there were 17 more cancer cases confirmed since the last report on February 7th, 2014. 

The total number of cases confirmed or suspected of cancer is 90. Of these, 51 had surgeries as March 31, 2014 and 1 turned out to be a benign nodule, 49 were confirmed to be papillary thyroid cancer, and 1 still has no confirmed cytological diagnosis but listed as poorly differentiated thyroid cancer. (The total number of cases confirmed or suspected of cancer is often reported as 89 in news report, excluding the case confirmed to be benign). 

Shinichi Suzuki, a Fukushima Medical University professor who is in charge of thyroid examination, said the single case suspected of poorly differentiate thyroid cancer could not be confirmed yet by consulting pathologists due to the evolving international standards for the diagnostic guideline for poorly differentiated thyroid cancer.

Of the total number of 89 confirmed and suspected cases, excluding one case which turned out to be a benign nodule, 50 are confirmed thyroid cancer cases and 39 have cytological biopsy results suspicious of cancer. As of February 7th, 2014, there were 33 confirmed and 41 suspected cases of thyroid cancer: 17 of 41 suspected cases were confirmed with surgery, while 15 more cases had cytological biopsy results suspicious of cancer as the secondary examination progressed. (1,598 of 2,070 eligible completed the secondary examination as of March 31, 2014. This means there is a potential for more cancer cases diagnosed for the initial round of thyroid examination. 

As usual, no information was offered such as the type of nodules and also details of each surgical case which, as part of regular medical care, are considered beyond the scope of the screening and thus inaccessible to the Health Survey team. 

Suspected cases are not always immediately scheduled for surgery. With 47 of the 89 confirmed/suspected cases being over 18 years of age at the time of the secondary examination, some opt to schedule the surgery at a more convenient time, while under observation. (Incidentally, once they turn 18, they no longer have free medical care promised to Fukushima children, and their medical care takes place under the national health insurance with co-payment required. This adds an extra burden to patients and families).

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Below is a reference table showing the 2010 thyroid cancer incidence rate per 100,000 in Japan, compiled from National estimates of cancer incidence based on cancer registries in Japan (1975-2010) on the website of Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Japan. Due to an intense interest, domestically and internationally, in the pediatric thyroid cancer occurrence in Japan, the tables focused on the relevant age groups, including the age 20-24 group as some who were younger than age 18 at the time of the accident are now moving into this age category.



Note: The table shows “incidence,” representing the rate of occurrence of new cases in a given period. On the other hand, Fukushima thyroid examination is mass screening, which yields “prevalence,” the proportion of the total number of cases to the total population.

It is important to note that incidence and prevalence are not directly comparable, so the incidence rates shown above are only a relative measure of comparison.


Thursday, May 1, 2014

Shunichi Yamashita to Head a New Support Center in Fukushima for Residents Returning to Evacuation Zone

On May 1, 2014, an article, translated into English below, appeared on a Japanese Internet news site. Shunichi Yamashita, one of the three Fukushima Prefecture Radiation Health Risk Management Advisors and a former vice president of Fukushima Medical University, will be heading a new Nagasaki University center in Fukushima Prefecture. 

Only a year ago, Yamashita left Fukushima Prefecture, where he was a chairman of the Prefectural Resident Health Management Survey Oversight Committee, and returned to Nagasaki Prefecture. Yamashita is infamous for his "safe up to 100 mSv" statement, encouraging residents to let children play outside freely, discounting the need for protective use of face masks, and irresponsibly telling the residents to follow the annual exposure limit of 20 mSv set forth by the government.

It seems that Yamashita is officially "back in business." 



(translation below)

Nagasaki University establishes a new support organization in Fukushima, geared towards returning residents.

"Nagasaki University announced on May 1st that a new organization called “Fukushima Future Creation Support and Research Center” was established, which would support recovery effort of Fukushima Prefecture from TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident, with medical care, welfare and education. Nagasaki University has been offering support, drawing from its experience in medical care of Hibakusha in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, since immediately after the accident. The center official says, “We would like to emphasize the support of returning residents as the evacuation order gets lifted from now on.”

The center will explain to residents about the numbers in ambient radiation doses and radiation exposure doses and hold workshops for medical and nursing students to learn about radiation. Nagasaki University vice president Shunichi Yamashita was assigned to be the director of the center."


Wednesday, April 16, 2014

A Letter to the Editor Regarding the Mangano/Sherman/Busby Study on Post-Fukushima Congenital Hypothyroidism in California

The following letter was sent to the editor of Open Journal of Pediatrics (OJPed) regarding the congenital hypothyroidism study by Joseph Mangano, Janette Sherman and Christopher Busby.

The letter indicated that the actual count of confirmed cases of congenital hypothyroidism (CH) from the California Public Health Department does not match the authors' count because they disregarded the actual count given to them. Instead, the authors (1) invented their own definition of confirmed cases of CH, (2) misrepresented the real definition of CH, and (3) invented a fictitious diagnostic category of CH which they call "borderline cases.” 

OJPed's response was, "Thank you for your mails. However, the letter cannot be published. And the paper published in OJPED will not be withdrawn."

Critique of the related study by Mangano and Sherman, by Steve Wing, was published here. A letter to the editor regarding the same related study by Alfred Körblein, published here, was also rejected by OJPed.

The letter was the subject of this post by Jeffrey Beall who keeps track of predatory journals. 

Also, the video by Ian Goddard clearly explains issues regarding this study as well as another study by two of the authors.





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April 14, 2014

A letter to the editor of Open Journal of Pediatrics

In the article, “Changes in confirmed plus borderline cases of congenital hypothyroidism in California as a function of environmental fallout from the Fukushima nuclear meltdown,” Mangano, et al. base their conclusion on erroneous and selective data interpretation regarding the number of confirmed congenital hypothyroidism (CH) cases in the study population.

The authors obtained the newborn screening data for congenital hypothyroidism (CH) from the Genetic Disease Screening Program at the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), including the number of confirmed cases and children screened, grouped by their thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels from 2009 to 2012. The CDPH office was contacted to obtain a copy of the original data used by the authors in an attempt to replicate their findings.

In California, the cutoff for a preliminary indication of CH is a TSH value >=29 mIU/L, as seen in the Newborn Screening cutoff/reference ranges dated 09/11/2013.

However, the authors erroneously state,

     “The program confirms CH cases by using only TSH scores greater than 29.0 micro international units per milliliter (μIU/ml). Any child meeting this criterion is prescribed replacement thyroid hormone, to promote normal physical and mental development. On January 1, 2011, the state changed the assay method used to calculate TSH. Scores increased in most newborns, and thus the number of CH cases also increased.” (Note: μIU/mL is equivalent to mIU/L)

Authors make several errors in the study, beginning with the passage above. First, the only thing being measured by the Newborn Screening program is an elevated whole-blood TSH level which is not a diagnosis of CH as further clinical confirmation is required for a diagnosis of CH. TSH values over the cutoff of 29 μIU/ml only means “positive” screening, and it is not true that any child meeting this criterion is prescribed replacement hormone.

In e-mail correspondence with Robert J. Currier, Ph.D., Acting Chief, Program and Policy, from the CDPH Genetic Disease Screening Program, Currier stated,

     “A presumptive positive baby (for CH) takes a serum TSH testing and other optional tests   (clinicians’ choices) such as free T4. The baby is also referred to a state-approved   endocrinology center and seen by an endocrinology specialist. Repeating follow-up if needed. If the baby is a confirmed CH case, then an annual follow-up check with the endocrine center will be established.”

Thus, the definition used by the authors of “confirmed CH cases” is inaccurate, yet the authors use "positive" screening to erroneously count confirmed cases.

Second, as for the new assay method reportedly instituted on January 1, 2011, what increased was not “the number of CH cases” alluded by the authors, but the TSH cutoff value. As Currier also states,

     “Before 2011, the cutoff value for CH presumptive positives was 25 μIU/ml. In early 2011 our labs adopted a brand new technology for TSH testing. As a result, there had been a change in TSH values at populations basis and we adjusted the cutoff to 29 μIU/ml in April 2011. In other words, before April 2011, TSH screening >=25 μIU/ml were considered as CH positives. This information (of changed testing method) was supplied to Joe Mangano as well.”

Third, the authors further define “borderline cases” as “a cautious range of 19.0 - 28.9 μIU/ml,” and add the "borderline cases" to their estimate of total CH cases. But this definition is meaningless, as CH cases are only confirmed after follow-up clinical observation and further testing.

In fact, Currier states further,

     “We do not have any definition for 'borderline cases.' TSH testing is a screening tool and only clinically diagnosed CH cases are considered 'CH cases.'” Currier added, “It is possible, although very rare, that a confirmed case would have a TSH value below cutoff and was diagnosed later clinically.”

While the authors declare that California has "a consistent definition of the disorder," conjuring the ill-defined "borderline" category to be combined with mere "positive" screening cases represents an egregious introduction of bias.

This step appears to increase the 2011-2012 CH total from 658 to 4670, inflating the p value (p < 0.00000001 for “combined confirmed and borderline cases”) in the statistical analysis. In their Discussion the authors then write "...despite having to define borderline cases arbitrarily. In California, adding borderline cases (TSH between 19.0 and 28.9 μIU/ml) to those confirmed cases (TSH over 29.0) increases the number of cases by more than seven fold." This statement confirms how data selection was biased and that the authors consider "borderline" and "positive" screening to be equal to "confirmed cases" of CH.

Currier also provided the same two sets of data that were given to the authors (see Tables 1 and 2) and additional details about the CH screening program.

Currier indicated that the data on the confirmed case count table had been updated since it was given to authors, because “in rare cases, a baby who was misdiagnosed or diagnosed with a degree of uncertainty could be removed from our registry at a later date.” However, Currier assured that it should be very close to data initially provided to the authors. Currier also mentioned that “Mangano did not use the data from this table (Table 2) in his article.”

Table 1 TSH Value Breakdown from Initial Newborn Screening in California, 2009-2012


Table 2: Confirmed case count of Primary Congenital Hypothyroidism in California, 2009-2012


Alfred Körblein, a retired physicist and independent consultant in epidemiology in Germany, plotted the number of “confirmed” cases of congenital hypothyroidism per 100,000 (Figure 1). As can be seen, an increase in the confirmed cases in the period from March 17th to December 31st shows variation similar to other time periods.

Figure 1: Incidence of Confirmed Cases of CH 2009-2013


Fourth, the authors state, at the end of the Results section, “With much larger samples than just confirmed cases, a better understanding of the true change can be approached.” The desire for larger sample size by the authors of this paper suggests a limited understanding of the CH screening program in California.

In conclusion, the study by Mangano, Sherman and Busby has critical flaws: 1) incorrectly taking raw positive screenings (TSH >=29 μIU/ml) to be confirmed CH cases, thus disregarding the correct number of actually confirmed CH cases they received from the CDPH; 2) defining a meaningless diagnostic category of “borderline” cases that has no basis in the screening program or in medical practice; and 3) claiming that the faux rate they conjured (positive screening results plus "borderline" screening results) is a valid construct; and 4) claiming that the CH increase in 2011 was statistically significant, whereas the plotting of the number of actual clinically confirmed cases from 2009 to 2012 clearly shows no significant increase.

Sincerely,

Yuri Hiranuma, D.O.
Member, Radiation and Health Committee, Physicians for Social Responsibility